In our research project with Hochschule Koblenz sponsored by the Canadian Institute of Actuaries Dr. Martina Brück, Dr. Claus Neidhardt and Kai Kaufhold developed a general framework for deriving assumptions about future mortality trends:

  • Objective model selection criteria
  • Stochastic mortality forecast results reconciled to deterministic projections
  • Quantify forecast uncertainty and estimation error

A brief summary of the research is available …

… as well as a podcast.